基于季节时序模型的水稻区降水量预测

Applying the season time series model to forecast the precipitation in the area of well irrigation rice

充分合理利用降水进行灌溉是节水、增温、增产的有效途径。应用季节性随机时序模型理论 ,针对三江平原广大井灌水稻区 ,利用创业农场 1980～ 1999年 2 0年月平均降水资料 ,建立了该地区的降水预测模型。经与实测值对比 ,精度较高 。

Making the most of precipitation is a availability method in water saving irrigation, increasing water temperature and raising yield. Just based on this, through applying the theory of season random time series, according to the data of average monthly precipitation (1980-1999), the paper builds up the forecasting model in the area of well irrigation rice in Sanjiang Plain. Through contrasting with practical value, the model has good effect. So, it can be used in water irrigation management.