美国股市调整与经济周期的变化

The Adjustment of the Stock Market and the Turning ofthe Business Cycle in the U.S.

2000年以来,美国股市进入了调整期,截至2002年9月,已经跌至五年来的最低点,下跌的势头还在持续。股价下跌是十多年来美国虚拟经济超越实体经济的发展而出现过度繁荣、股市泡沫过度膨胀的必然结果。而一些大企业虚报利润的丑闻,引发了人们的信任危机则是泡沫破灭的直接原因。美国股市的调整对美国经济会产生许多不利的影响。通过对过去十多年来美国经济中积累矛盾的调整,美国生产关系的某些局部也将会发生变化。调整后的美国经济制度和管理模式将对世界各国产生深远的影响。

The American stock markets had entered the adjustment period since the early of 2000 and from then to the end of September 2002, the share prices had slump to the record low point in the five years. The falling share prices are the inevitable results of both the prices overvalued since the second half of the 1990s, and the bust of the bubble since the midyear of 2000. The crisis of confidence caused by the fraud scandals in some listed firms is the main reason for the bust in the stock market. The adjustment of the stock market might have many negative effects on the economy recovery in the U.S. The adjustment, which related to the problems accumulated over the past decade, is essentially the reforming of the economic relationships in certain areas. The reformed economic institution and the managemental model will have a deeper effect on other countries.