决策者行为风险分析模型研究

Study on the Model of Decision Maker′s Risk Analysis

从决策者的定义出发对决策者风险产生动因进行分析 ,提出了风险产生的原因 ,并在此基础上 ,构造了决策者行为风险分析模型。该模型对决策者败德行为的动机函数和效用函数进行构造 ,通过对决策者自身能力的期望和效用函数的比较分析 ,求出当效用最大化时的各种效用函数因子的关系 ,并研究不同效用函数结构下决策者进行调整的各种行为 ,最终提出了防范决策者行为风险的措施。

Based on the definition of decision maker,the paper analyzes the cause of risks producing,and gives out the causes.Then the paper proposes the model of decision maker′s risk analysis,in which we eastablish the motivation function and utility function.for moral hazard of decision maker′s expectation for his ability and the utility function.The model gets the relationship of all kinds of factors in the utility function when the utility is maximized.And the model also studies on the various adjusting behavior under different utility functions,according to which the method preventing decision maker′s risks is proposed.