科技图书市场的灰色预测

Grey Prediction of Science and Technology Book Market

我国的科技发展、国民经济建设都离不开科技图书,科技图书的出版与发行又离不开科技图书市场(发行量)的预测。影响图书市场的因素很多,有地区差别、城乡差异、读者嗜好、营销方式、图书质量、图书价格、经济发展、政策导向等,从而使预测问题变得十分复杂。根据灰色系统理论,通过建立预测模型、进行参数辨识,在此基础上得出的预测方程能够比较准确地预测出科技图书市场的发行量。本方法可推广应用于其他类图书市场的预测。

Books of science and technology have played an instrumental role in disseminating knowledge and helping enhance the growth of national economy. The publication and distribution of books have also had something to do with the predication of market. Several factors affect directly science and technology book market:difference of districts, difference between urban and rural areas, difference of the taste of the reader, modes f managment and channel of distribution, the quality and price of books development of economy, policy implementation and change, and so on. Those factors make the prediction of market extremely difficult. Having established prediction models and distinguishing parameters, this paper uses the theory of grep system to predict science and technology book market. The analysis and the computation of samples show that the prediction of formulas is quite valid and reasonable and the prediction suitable for science and technology book market. The method of prediction may also be applied to other types of books.