外汇储备持有量-适度量模型及其应用分析

The Cofistruction and Application Analysis of Actual-optimal Foreign Reserves Model

本文首先通过外汇储备增量分析 ,找出了能较好解释外汇储备变动的三个主要变量 :贸易差额、外商直接投资 (FDI)和外债增加额 ,在此基础上运用 OL S方法建立了我国外汇储备持有量方程 ;然而 ,在借鉴国外的外汇储备适度规模理论基础上 ,通过分析我国实际外汇需求 ,构建了我国适度储备量方程 ;最后论述了外汇储备持有量和适度量不一致时所产生的负面效应 ,并主要结合进口这一变量阐述了利用上述持有量 -适度量模型进行外汇储备规模管理和调控的思路。

In this paper,we firstly apply increase analysis of foreign reserves to explain the reason of variation of foreign reserves,and find out three major variables:trade surplus,FDI,the increase of foreign debt.By making use of OLS regression method,we construct actual foreign reserve equation;then we analyze demand factors of foreign reserve and arrive at optimal equation,guided by foreign relevant theory.At last,we incorporate import variable to introduce the application analysis of actual-optimal model,and so on.