基于自组织方法的人工神经网络经济预测模型的建立

The Establishment of Economy Forecasting ModelBased on GMDH and Artificial Neural Network

本文针对神经网络的结构特性,提出将自组织方法与神经网络相结合的思想,不仅解决了输入待定的神经网络输入维数难确定的问题,而且加快了网络的收敛速度,增强了网络的适应能力。并将新建立的模型应用到经济预测中,得出了比常规经济学模型更优的效果。

In the paper, aiming at the characteristics of neural network structure, a method of connecting GMDH and BP is presented. It can make the selection of inputlay units easily, and improve the ability of rate of studying and neural network. Then we put it use into the economic fields, our conclusion shows that this method is superior to the statistical modeling approach.