中国对外贸易的“优进优出”战略:基于产品质量与增加值率视角的研究

China’s Strategy for Quality Imports and Quality Exports:A Study Based on Product Quality and Value Added Ratio

本文利用中国工业企业数据和海关数据的匹配数据库,基于Tobit、IV-Tobit等多种计量方案实证研究了进口产品质量提升对出口产品质量和出口国内增加值率的影响。研究发现:(1)总体来看,一般贸易进口产品质量显著提升了对应产品的出口质量,且在高、低研发强度企业及外资企业和民营企业均得到一致结果;高研发强度企业加工贸易进口产品质量有利于提升其出口产品质量,低研发强度企业则呈现负向影响。(2)无论是基于OECD成员国、“一带一路”倡议抑或反倾销调查分组还是针对高收入国家,一般贸易下进口产品质量均显著提升了同类产品的出口质量,但低收入国家则不显著。对加工贸易而言,来自非OECD国家和“一带一路”沿线国家进口产品质量会降低出口产品质量。(3)从影响机制看,不管是一般贸易还是加工贸易,进口产品质量梯度均对进口产品质量影响出口产品质量的促进作用形成正向调节效应;一般贸易下进口产品质量通过创新中介效应显著提升了出口产品质量;但加工贸易下该效应则不确定。(4)进一步拓展研究发现,一般贸易下进口产品质量显著提高了出口国内增加值率,但加工贸易却降低了国内出口增加值率。

Based on China industrial enterprise database and China Customsdatabase , this paper analyzed the effect of import product quality on export product qualityand firms' export domestic value added ratio ( DVAR) using different empirical methodsincluding Tobit and IV Tobit. The results show that:① Import product qualitysignificantly promotes export product quality in the context of general trade, and we get thesame conclusion for firms with different level of R&D ratio and ownership. However, theresults in processing trade are complicated: for firms with high level of R&D ratio, importproduct quality increases export product quality, while for firms with low R&D ration, importproduct quality decreases export product quality. ② In the context of general trade,the finding that import product quality significantly promotes export product quality can beverified by samples consisted of OECD countries, OBOR countries and high-income countries. However, the effect is insignificant in low-income countries. In terms of processingtrade, the fact that import product quality decreases the export product quality is supportedby OECD countries and OBOR countries. ③With respects to influential mechanism, wefind that import quality ladder has a positive moderating effect for the impact of importproduct quality on the export product quality in the context of general trade and processingtrade. The positive effect of import product quality on export product quality in generaltrade is realized through mediating effect of in novation, while the effect for the processingtrade is uncertain. ④ Further study shows that import product quality promotes firms' exportDVAR in general trade, while this effect is opposite in processing trade.