汇率风险与企业出口

RMB Exchange Rate Volatility and Enterprises’ Export

为了让人民币成为国际上的重要储备货币和投资贸易上的重要结算货币,增加人民币汇率机制的灵活性并控制由此而增加的汇率风险是人民币国际化中回避不了的问题。很多政策制定者和学者担忧:这是否会损害中国的对外贸易利益?本文在Melitz模型的框架下,在理论上分析了汇率风险对企业出口贸易的影响机理;在实证上使用中国2000-2008年的企业出口贸易和工业统计数据①,在不同的稳健情形下检验的结果表明:汇率风险对出口贸易有着相互冲突的作用力,双边汇率风险抑制了企业的出口行为,与除了出口目的地之外的其他目的地之间的多边汇率波动风险促进了企业的出口贸易;出口企业出口的产品种类和出口目的地越多,企业就会在不同的目的地之间优化分配出口资源,吸收双边汇率风险的负面冲击效应,从总体上推动贸易的发展。该论证为央行进一步放松人民币汇率浮动幅度的改革提供了理论上的支持。

There were two very important arguments about the RMB exchange rate mechanism in the process of RMB internationalization:early debate focused on whether the renminbi was underestimated and the recent debate focused on the flexibility of the exchange rate mechanism in China.In this paper,under the framework of Melitz model,the paper analyzed the influence mechanism of exchange rate volatility on the export of enterprises.In the empirical application,based on the data of the export trade and industrial statistics of enterprises in China from 2000 to 2008,the empirical results show that exchange rate volatility has conflicting effects on export trade.Bilateral exchange rate volatility suppresses the export behavior of enterprises and the fluctuation of multilateral exchange rate among other destinations except export destinations promotes the export of enterprises.The more types of export products and export destinations,the more the enterprises will optimize the distribution of export resources among different destinations,and absorb the negative impact of bilateral exchange rate volatility,which will promote the development of trade as a whole.