我国国际货物贸易与商务入境旅游间互动关系研究

Interactive Relationship of International Goods Trade and Business Inbound Tourism in China

基于国际货物贸易与商务入境旅游互动关系机理,通过建立向量自回归模型,运用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,定量测度1990-2016年我国国际货物贸易与商务入境旅游之间的互动关系及前者对后者的促进效应。结果发现:(1)一般贸易进出口、加工贸易进出口与商务入境旅游之间分别存在双向格兰杰因果互动关系。(2)一般贸易进出口、加工贸易进出口均在短期内对商务入境旅游具有显著的正向冲击效应,仅在冲击效应增速、峰值与持续强度上存在一定差异。(3)对商务入境旅游的促进效应大小存在由高到低的排序,排序为:一般贸易出口、加工贸易进口、加工贸易出口、一般贸易进口。我国应高度重视不同构成的国际货物贸易对商务入境旅游的促进作用,在近期内稳步发展加工贸易,在中期内大力提升一般贸易出口,在远期内深挖一般贸易进口潜力。

Based on interaction mechanism of goods trade and business inboundtourism, this paper, by establishing a vector autoregressive ( VAR ) model,quantitatively measures the interaction relationship of international goods trade andbusiness inbound tourism from 1990 to 2016 applying methods of cointegration analysis,Granger causality relationship test, impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results show as follow ( 1 ) There is a two-way Granger causality relationship respectivelybetween general trade import & export, processing trade import & export and business inbound tourism. (2) General trade import & export and processing trade import export have a significantly positive impact on business inbound tourism in six months, onlyare there some differences in the growth rate, peak value and continuous strength of impact. (3) The sequencing of promoting effect to business inbound tourism is, generaltrade export > processing trade import > processing trade export > general trade import.China should attach great importance to the promoting effect of international goods tradeconsisted of different components on business inbound tourism, with steadily developingprocessing trade in the near future, vigorously enhancing general trade export in the midtermand deeply digging the potential of general trade import in the long term.