中日关系跌宕起伏的深层原因及其发展态势

The Profound Reasons and Future Trends of the Fluctuations of the China-Japan Relations

2016年,日本当权者积极配合美国的“亚洲再平衡”战略,高调介入南海岛礁纷争,升高东海紧张局势,搅局“一带一路”建设,导致中日关系近年来的改善势头严重受挫。事实再次证明了中日战略博弈的复杂性和长期性。中日关系之所以跌宕起伏,最关键也是最根本的原因是日本当权者的对华认知出了问题。鉴于这一病根难以在短期内去除,在可预见的未来,两国关系将呈现竞争与合作共存、挑战与机遇并存的态势。

In 2016,the momentum to improve the China-Japan relations,which had been developing for several years in the past,suHered a serious setback.This is because the Japanese rulers made a high-pitched intervention into the territorial disputes over the islands in the South China Sea,escalated the already stressful tensions in the East China Sea,and brought troubles to China's"Eelt and Road”construction.This situation once again certified the complexity and endurance of the strategic gaming between China and Japan.The most crucial and fundamental cause leading to the continuous fluctuations of the China-Japan relations is the misperceptions of Japanese rulers in their evaluations over China.It is estimated that competition and challenges will coexist with cooperation and opportunities in the China-Japan relations in the foreseeable future,because it is very difficult to rectify the above-mentioned root cause.