京津冀地区霾日数与经济发展相关程度分析

The Relevance Research of Haze Days and Economic Development in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

霾是较为严重的灾害性天气,为了治霾,各地政府采取各种方式,付出了较大的经济代价。为了实现精准治霾、促进经济增长,本文在文献研究的基础上,从国际经济、宏观经济和微观经济三个方面做了4个假设,得出了11个验证指标,利用京津冀22个省、市、县的数据对假设结论进行了验证。研究发现:国际经济方面,霾日数具有一定的影响力,但是具体到河北省各市县的影响有升有降,因此总体影响效果不明显;宏观经济方面,第二、三产业值与GDP的相关度较大,说明第二产业和第三产业决定了GDP的发展趋势;微观经济分析说明大量能源的消耗和汽车尾气是造成霾污染的重要因素,需要减少能源消耗和汽车尾气;政府固定资产投资与霾日数相关,调整原有的投资方向是减霾的重要措施。

Haze is severe disastrous weather.Governments take all kinds of ways to govern haze and pay more economic price.Based on literature review,three fields are sured and there are international economy,macroeconomy and microeconomy.Four hypothesis and eleven indicators have been gotten.Practical economic data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei prove haze days have unconspicuous to international economy.The relevancy is similar between GDP and the secondary and tertiary industry.Thus,the secondary and tertiary industry decide the tendency of GDP development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area. Micro-economic analysis shows the total energy consumption and the emissions of car are the main cause of haze pollution.At the same time,the fixed-asset investment has related to haze days.So the direction of government invest is one of the most important measures to reduct haze.