新一轮个税改革的减税与收入再分配效应

The Effect on Tax Reduction and Income Distribution of the New Round of Individual Income Tax Reform

本文基于CHIPS2013城镇居民数据,通过建立反事实研究框架对新一轮个税改革的减税与收入再分配调节效应进行分析。研究发现,税改前后相比,工资薪金所得税减少了52%,经营性收入所得税减少了58%。其中,新一轮个税改革对低收入群体没有影响,对中等收入群体的影响最大,降低了中等收入群体大约89%的工资薪金所得税。不考虑专项附加抵扣的情况下,2019年个税总额较2018年减少大约17.81%。与旧个税相比,新个税体制下城镇居民的工资薪金收入不平等程度改善较小,主要因为平均税率降低导致。新一轮个税改革虽然起到了预期的减税效果,但是其收入再分配调节未充分发挥出来。

Based on the income distribution of urban residents in CHIPS2013, a counterfactual research framework is established to analyze the effect on tax reduction and income distribution adjustment of the new individual income tax reform. The study finds that compared with the previous individual income tax system, income taxes on wages and salaries decreased by 52% and income taxes on operating income decreased by 58% under the new income tax system. Moreover, the new round of individual income tax reform has no impact on low-income group but has huge impact on middle-income group, reducing the income tax on wages and salaries of middle-income people by about 89%. Without considering the special additional deduction, this paper predicts that the total personal income tax in 2019 will be reduced by about 17.81% compared with that in 2018. Compared with that of the previous individual income tax system, the effect of the new individual income tax system on the decline in inequality of taxes and salaries of urban residents is smaller, mainly due to the reduction of the average tax rate. Although the new individual income tax system does reduce taxes as expected, it fails to increase the income redistribution effect of personal income tax.