“十三五”电力煤控中期评估及展望

China Power Industry Thirteenth Five-Year Coal Cap Mid-Term Evaluation and Outlook

“十三五”以来,我国能源结构转型进入关键阶段。打赢蓝天保卫战、进一步强化煤炭消费总量控制在能源结构转型中的重要性更加凸显。电力行业一直是煤炭消耗的最大部门。以保证电力供应为基础,继续深化供给侧改革,强化需求侧管理,加速推进电力市场化建设是实现电力部门煤炭消费控制目标的关键。本文对电力发展“十三五”规划中提出的目标,尤其是煤控目标及相关措施落实情况进行评估。经济增长叠加气温异常、电能替代等多重因素,使得2018年全社会用电量超预期增长,但此高速增长并非常态。根据“十三五”后期电力需求展望和各类电源装机情况及发展潜力,评估认为:11亿kW的煤电装机足以满足电力需求,发电耗煤将在2020年达峰为13.2亿tce。由于煤电结构优化和技术进步提升的减煤空间已非常有限,同时可再生能源成本持续降低很快可实现平价上网,未来电力部门控煤工作应更加注重市场机制。

Since the“13th Five-Year Plan”,China’s energy structure transformation has entered a critical stage.The importance of winning the blue sky defense war and further strengthening the total coal consumption control in the energy structure transformation is even more prominent.The power industry has been the largest sector of coal consumption.On the basis of ensuring power supply,we will continue to deepen supply-side reforms,strengthen demand-side management,and accelerate the development of power marketization,which is the key to achieving the goal of controlling coal consumption in the power sector.This paper evaluates the objectives set out in the 13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development,especially the implementation of coal control targets and related measures.Economic growth is superimposed on multiple factors such as abnormal temperature and electric energy substitution,which makes the whole society’s electricity consumption exceed expectations in 2018,but this high-speed growth is unsustainable.According to the“13th Five-Year Plan”power demand outlook and various power supply installations and development potential,the assessment believes that:1100 GW coal-fired installed capacity is sufficient to meet the power demand,power generation coal consumption will reach 1320 Mtce in 2020.Due to the optimization of coalelectric power structure and the advancement of technology,the space for reducing coal is very limited.At the same time,the cost of renewable energy will continue to decrease,and the price of the internet will be realized.In the future,the coal control work in the power sector should pay more attention to the market mechanism.