基于物元理论的罗源湾水域船舶定线制评价研究

Evaluation of the ship′s routing near Luoyuan bay based on matter-element theory

为加强罗源湾附近水域船舶的航行安全,通过IMO船舶定线制考虑的因素及罗源湾附近水域特点,确定了影响该水域船舶定线制通航安全的多种因素,从一致性、合理性、警戒区必要性以及自然条件4个方面建立该水域船舶定线制方案的评价体系,利用AHP的赋权方式确定指标权重,通过物元理论评价模型,对4组船舶定线制规划设计方案进行安全性评价,为完善船舶定线制,提高水域的综合利用提供建议和参考.研究表明:该方法能高效地处理评价船舶定线制多个定性、定量指标所引起的矛盾和不确定性的问题,使评判结果更加合理.同时,也可为其他水域的船舶定线制评价提供指导.

In order to enhance the safety of navigation near Luoyuan Bay,by combining the factors considered by the IMO ship routing and the characteristics of the waters near Luoyuan Bay,various factors affecting the navigation safety of the ship′s routing in this water area are determined.We have set up an evaluation system of ship′s routing in this water from four factors,including consistency,reasonableness,necessity of the guard zone and natural conditions.The weights of evaluation index are determined by the method of AHP,and though the evaluation model based on matter-element theory,the planning and design scheme of four groups of ship′s routing are evaluated.Some suggestions and reference are provided for improving ship′s routing and the comprehensive utilization of this water.It is shown that this method is able to efficiently solve the contradiction and uncertainty caused by multiple qualitative and quantitative indicators of ship′s routing,which makes the results more reasonable.At the same time,it can also provide guidance for ship′s routing in other waters.