我国畜产品价格波动影响因素分析——以四种主要肉类产品为例

Analysis of Factors Affecting Price Fluctuation of Livestock Products——Taking four main meat products as examples

本文基于2006年1月至2016年12月四种主要肉类产品的价格数据,选取了货币供应量、国际同类产品价格和国际原油价格三种非传统因素构建TVP-SV-VAR模型,分析了它们对我国畜产品价格的影响。研究表明:货币供应量是影响我国畜产品价格波动的重要原因;国际同类产品价格对牛肉价格和羊肉价格的冲击均存在显著的结构性突变;国际原油价格的影响尚无明显规律。

Based on the meat products price data,this paper sets up the TVP-SV-VAR?model,selecting money supply,similar products prices and crude oil price as three non-traditional factors,analyzes the impacts on the meats products prices.The research results are:Money supply is the key factors,and the impact of similar products price impact has the structural breaks as well.However,the basic rules cannot be found on impact of the crude oil.