基于PLS-SEM的水利工程施工安全分析

PLS-SEM-based analysis on construction safety of water conservancy project

为了有效预防和减少事故发生,运用基于偏最小二乘的结构方程模型,针对水利工程进行施工风险分析。结合水利工程施工的特点,设定12个显变量与4个潜变量,建立水利工程施工风险评价模型,通过调查问卷的形式收集原始数据,应用SPSS软件对问卷数据进行信度与效度分析,再利用SmartPLS2.0软件进行循环迭代以及PLS回归分析,得到模型的载荷系数与拟合指标。计算结果表明,企业影响与组织机构、施工现场与技术措施、人员素质与操作违规、安全管理与安全监督之间的影响最大。该模型不仅描述变量间的因果关系,更能有效量化安全指标影响程度,在工程实际应用中有一定的借鉴意义。

In order to effectively prevent and reduce accidents,the partial least squares-based structural equation modeling is applied to the construction risk analysis on water conservancy project.Combined with the characteristics of the construction of water conservancy project,a water conservancy construction risk assessment model is established herein through setting 12 explicit variables and 4 latent variables.Through the mode of questionnaire,the raw data are collected,and then the reliability and validity of the questionnaire data are analyzed with the software of SPSS,while the cycle iteration and PLS regression analysis are made with the software of SmartPLS2.0,thus the load factor and fitting index of the model are obtained.The calculation result shows that the influences among enterprise impact and institutional framework,construction site and technical measures,personnel quality and operation violation,safety management and safety supervision are the largest.This model can not only describe the causal relationship among the variables,but can also more effectively quantify the influence degree of the safety index,thus has a certain referential significance in the actual engineering application.