中国省域农村水电发展水平评价及空间格局演变研究

Research on the Development Level Evaluation and Spatial Pattern Evolution of Rural Hydropower of Chinese Provinces

为重现我国省域农村水电发展水平的时空演变规律,合理布局未来发展规划,需借助科学合理的综合评价量化方法。基于此,从时间和空间两个维度,围绕经济、社会、生态环境、资源等四个领域构建中国省域农村水电发展水平评价指标体系(共15个指标)。以1990-2015年各省级行政区面板数据为基础,综合运用熵权TOPSIS方法及耦合协调度模型,从国家、区域、省级三个层面对农村水电发展水平进行了测度;在此基础上,采用聚类分析法对我国省域农村水电空间格局演变情况进行了探讨。计算结果将省域农村水电空间格局演变划分为高度协调、相对协调和欠协调三大分区,且表现为明显的三个发展阶段,分别为:波动上升期,不平衡、不协调发展期和稳步上升期;据此针对各省份农村水电发展特点,提出政策建议。

The main issues to be solved in this paper are the comprehensive evaluation of the development level and the analysis of spatial pattern evolution of rural hydropower at the provincial level in China.Through the dimension of time and space,the development level evaluation indicator system was built from economy,society,ecological environment and resources fields(15 indicators).Based on the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2015,through entropy weight TOPSIS method and coupling coordination model,the development level of national,regional and provincial rural hydropower was calculated.On this base,the spatial pattern evolution of provincial rural hydropower was studied through cluster analysis.According to the cluster analysis results,the spatial pattern evolution of provincial rural hydropower can be divided into highly coordinated area,relative coordination area and poor coordination area.There are three main development periods of rural hydropower,namely:undulation development,unbalanced,uncoordinated development and steady development periods.On the basis of characteristics of provincial rural hydropower,some policy suggestions are put forward.