气温天气指数保险的费率厘定——以粮食作物为例

The Ratemaking of Temperature Index Insurance:A Case of Grain Crops

天气指数保险是传统农业保险、区域产量保险的创新。选择天气指数保险,探讨其费率厘定,有助于克服道德风险和逆选择,确保农业保险快速、健康地发展。粮食作物气温天气指数保险的费率厘定,首先要测算低温(或高温)的严重程度,计算低温(或高温)测度值;再分析气候因素导致粮食作物减产的程度,计算气候减产率;然后利用计量经济分析方法,确立气候减产率与低温(或高温)测度值之间的定量关系;最后根据该定量关系以及低温(或高温)测度值的期望值,求得气温天气指数保险的费率。该费率厘定方法,科学地测定了低温(或高温)程度,把赔付概率、触发值、费率厘定有机地联系在一起。并以长沙县早稻保险为例进行了实证研究。

Weather index insurance is an innovation of traditional agricultural and area yield insurance.Accurate ratemaking of weather index insurance will contribute to overcome moral hazard and adverse selection,and also ensure the rapid healthy development of crop insurance.The crop ratemaking method of temperature index insurance is studied here,including reckoning the low temperature(or high temperature)measurements to measure the severity of low temperatures(or high temperatures),estimating meteorological yield reduction rates to analyze the effects of climate factors on grain crops,determining the quantitative relationship between meteorological yield reduction rates and the low temperature(or high temperature)measurements through the methods of?econometric?analysis,calculating the premium rates of temperature index insurance on the quantitative relationship and the mathematical expectation values of the low temperature(or high temperature)measurements.The ratemaking method can scientifically measure the severity of low temperatures(or high temperatures)linking the compensation probabilities,triggering threshold values and the rates and the early rice insurance of Changsha County is as an example.