个体健康、家庭照护和社会供给：谁更影响老人的居家养老服务需求

Health conditions,Informal Care and Social Provision:Which is More Influencing the Elderly’s Demand for Home-care

基于2005、2008和2011年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查中的同批城镇老人数据,利用主成分分析方法,研究居家养老服务需求影响因素的集聚性和稳定性,并明晰居家养老服务需求影响因素的类别及其次序。研究发现,影响居家养老服务需求的众多因素在统计上呈现出一定次序的集聚性,表明影响因素之间存在内在关联。这种关联体现在居家养老服务需求影响因素有一定的类别归属,但其影响地位不同,且不同时期,影响地位也会有一定变化。个体的自理能力始终是较为重要的影响类别,社区服务供给和保险保障能力是重要性愈加凸显的影响类别,家庭照护能力是日渐式微的影响类别。这些影响类别有力佐证了居家养老设置需求评估、建设长期护理保险的重要性,以及调整服务供给、鼓励社会力量参与和倡导家庭责任的必要性。

Based on the same batch of urban elderly data in the tracking survey of Chinese elderly health influencing factors in 2005,2008 and 2011,this paper uses principal component analysis to study the agglomeration and stability of the factors affecting the demand for home-care,and to clarify the important impact category of home-care demand.Studies have shown that many factors affecting the demand for home-care present a certain order of aggregation in sta?tistical terms,indicating that there is an intrinsic relationship between the influencing factors.This kind of correlation is reflected in the fact that the factors affecting the demand for home-care have certain categories but different influ?ence status,and the influence status will also change in different periods.Individual self-care ability is always a more important impact category.Community care supply and insurance support are the more important categories,and fami?ly care is a gradual weakened influence.These categories of influence strongly support the importance of needs assess?ment for the old-aged and building long-term care insurance,and the necessity of adjusting care delivery,encourag?ing social participation,and promoting family responsibilities.