中国人口红利研究的发展——基于文献综述视角

The Development of Demographic Dividend Research in China:Based on Literature Review

文章旨在归纳国内学者对我国人口红利的研究成果,以“本源——衍生——发展”的思路贯穿以往研究。基于人口红利本源概念,围绕存在性、影响机制、实现机制及持续性等问题分析,通过阐述第二人口红利、人力资本红利及广义人口红利等概念,清晰人口红利衍生概念;总结人口红利的发展研究,主要体现在人口红利再认识、结构分析、区域化分析及契机于经济新常态等方面。与此同时,提出未来研究方向可从新时代人口机会转型、人口红利转型量化分析、构建人力资本红利分析框架及深化分析继续收获人口红利的战略和经济改革决策等四点展开。

This paper summarizes domestic published articles on the demographic dividend in China from the perspective of"origin—derivation—development". Based on the classical concept,the paper tries to argue the existence,the dynamic mechanism,the realization mechanism and the sustainability of demographic dividend;it also analyzes the connotation of the second demographic dividend,the human capital demographic dividend and the generalized demographic dividend,so as to makes the evolution of the concept of demographic dividend clear;then,it explores the research on the development of demographic dividend,which is mainly reflected through the recognition,structural analysis,regional analysis and opportunities in the new economic normal. Meanwhile,it is proposed to explore new perspectives on demographic dividend research from four aspects,which are the population opportunity transformation in the new era;the quantitative analysis of demographic dividend transformation;the analytical framework for constructing human capital demographic dividend;the further study on strategy and economic reform policy to continue to harvest the demographic dividend.