边疆少数民族地区户籍人口迁出意愿与影响因素研究

A Study on the Willingness and Influencing Factors of the Resident Registration Population in the Border Minority Areas

文章以边疆少数民族地区户籍人口为研究对象,运用逐步回归的方法,考察当下边疆少数民族地区户籍人口迁出意愿现状,选取新疆兵团433名户籍人口作为案例研究。研究发现:现阶段,大多数边疆少数民族地区户籍人口居留意愿较强,但有近三分之一的户籍人口迁出意愿存在“不确定性”,且在人口结构上存在异质性;个体特征中的性别、年龄、文化程度、婚姻状况等4个因子对边疆少数民族地区户籍人口迁出意愿均有显著影响,社会环境中的发展前景、文化认同、邻里关系等3个因子对边疆少数民族地区户籍人口迁出意愿具有显著影响,并提出了厚植边疆少数民族地区户籍人口戍边文化、推进边疆少数民族地区经济跨越式发展、提高邻里关系和谐度三点建议。

This paper takes the registered population of minority areas in the border areas as the research object,uses the method of stepwise regression,investigates the current situation of the willingness of the registered population of minority areas in the border areas to move out,and chooses 433 registered population of Xinjiang Corps as a case study. The study found that:at present,the majority of the ethnic minority areas in the border areas have strong willingness to live,but nearly a third of the population have"uncertainty"about the willingness to move out,and there is heterogeneity in the demographic structure;gender,age,educational level,marital status and other four factors in personality characteristics have a significant impact on the willingness to move out of the ethnic minority areas in the border areas. Three factors such as development prospect,cultural identity and neighbourhood relationship in the social environment have a significant impact on the willingness of the registered population to move out in the border minority areas. Three suggestions are put forward,namely,planting the culture of Garrisoning the border,promoting the leapfrog development of the economy in the border minority areas,and improving the harmony of the neighbourhood relations.