俄中合作的发展逻辑、前景和主要演进方向

The Logic, Prospect and Main Evolution Direction of the Development of Russia-China Cooperation

在苏联解体后俄罗斯外交对亚洲方向政策调整的大背景下,俄中关系进入了从正常化到持续深化的良性发展阶段,尤其是与中国日益增强的地缘政治和经济关系,不仅为俄罗斯军事工业综合体提供了资金支持,还帮助俄罗斯在地缘政治层面“稳固”了存在相互冲突且经济不稳定的中亚“腹地”。同时,两国在上海合作组织、金砖国家、联合国等多边框架内的协作日益紧密。自苏联解体以来的将近三个十年里,俄中经贸关系的动态特别是区域合作方面,与两国关系宣布的战略属性,仍不完全相符。未来十年,俄罗斯出口结构多元化以及在中国经济总量高于俄罗斯的条件下进一步对俄罗斯开放中国市场,是两国间合作关系的基础,也是强化俄中经济合作发展的关键。期待俄中关系提升至全新的高度——在合作领域中或地缘区域内(国家或国际)构建起平等、互利、公平、开放的合作,为其他国家树立榜样。

In the context of the adjustment of Russia's foreign policy towards Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union,Russia-China relations have entered a stage of benign development from normalization to continuous deepening,especially Russia increasingly enhanced geopolitical and economic relations with China.It not only provides financial support for Russia's military and industrial complex,but also helps Russia"stabilize"the conflicted and economically unstable"hinterland"of Central Asia on the geopolitical level.At the same time,the two countries have developed closer coordination within multilateral frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,BRICS and the United Nations.In short,in the nearly three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union,the dynamics of Russia-China economic and trade relations,especially the regional cooperation,are still not fully consistent with the declared strategic nature of bilateral relations.In the next ten years,the cooperation between the two countries will bases on the facts that the diversification of Russia's export structure,the further opening of the Chinese market to Russia and China's economic aggregate is larger than that of Russia.It is also the key to strengthening Russia-China economic cooperation and development.