基于风险网络的轨道交通车辆风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Rail Vehicles Based on Risk Network

针对轨道交通车辆系统的风险网络和关键部件风险评价开展研究,以系统部件和部件连接关系作为节点和边,建立了风险网络模型,分析了节点固有风险的影响因素和计算方法.根据节点之间故障传播概率得到边的作用强度和路径风险.对节点固有风险和路径风险进行分析,得到节点综合风险,并通过幂法对节点综合风险进行求解,从而识别部件对系统的影响程度.以转向架系统为例进行综合风险计算,结果表明:部件固有风险大小不能完全决定综合风险大小,还与部件连接关系和作用强度相关;与实际经验得出的关键部件综合风险排序对比,利用本文方法得到的关键部件排序一致性与其他方法相比有明显提升.

The risk network and evaluation method of rail vehicles was discussed.The risk network model is established by taking system components and their connections as nodes and edges,and the factors affecting the inherent risk of components were analyzed,and the calculation method of inherent risk was proposed.Based on the probability of fault propagation,the action intensity of edges was obtained,and the path propagation risk was put forward.The comprehensive risk of nodes was proposed by taking the inherent risk and path risk of nodes into consideration,and solved by power method.Taking the bogie system as a case,the results show that there is no positive correlation between inherent risk and comprehensive risk,but is related to the connection relationship and action intensity of components.Compared with the comprehensive risk ranking of key components obtained by practical experience,the ranking consistency rate of key components obtained by using this method is significantly improved compared with other methods.