全面两孩政策实施前后河北省出生活产数及性别比变化趋势分析

Secular trends of the number and sex ratio of live births in Hebei Province since the implementation of two-child policy

目的研究“全面两孩”生育政策调整对河北省出生人口数量及其结构的影响,为政府决策提供科学支持。方法分析河北省2014年—2017年全省所有助产机构住院分娩出生的活产数,按市区和县域分层分析,对分娩活产中男女性别比进行趋势分析。结果“全面两孩”政策实施的2016年,出生活产数比2015年明显增加,市区内比县域内增加幅度大;2016年活产数并未超过政策调整前的2014年,且在2017年出现逐月减少趋势;全省助产机构出生人口男女性别比呈波浪性逐月下降趋势,按月份计算得到线性回归方程为Y=1.117-0.001X(β=-0.736;P<0.001)。结论“全面两孩政策”短期内促进本省出生人口增长,但效果有限。“全面两孩政策”对优化人口结构作用明显。

Objective To study the effect of two-child policy on the number and structure of the live births in Hebei Province,and to provide scientific support for government policy.Methods We analyzed the secular trends of live births in all the midwifery institutions of Hebei Province from 2014 to 2017,and analyzed the trend of sex ratio after stratification into urban and county.Results 1.After the universal two-child policy,the number of live births in 2016 is higher than that in 2015(P<0.05).There is a greater increase in the urban area than in the county.2.After the policy adjustment,the number of live births in 2016 is lower than that in 2014,and it decreased monthly in 2017.3.The sex ratio in all the midwifery institutions showed a gradual downward trend(Y=1.117-0.001X;β=-0.736,P<0.001).Conclusion The two-child policy has promoted the number of births in the short term,but the effect is limited.The two-child policy has an obvious effect on optimizing the demographic structure.