美联储加息对中国产出的影响——以计算机通信电子行业为例

The Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Increase on China’s Output——A Case Study of Computer Communication Electronics Industry

2015年美联储开启新一轮加息周期,本文基于计算机通信电子行业的视角,选取中美两国2006~2018年月度数据,建立TVP-SV-VAR模型,分析美联储加息对我国计算机通信电子行业影响的时变特征,发现在样本时间跨度内,美国加息政策对我国计算机通信行业存在正向冲击,主要是因为中美计算机通信电子行业存在竞争性。美联储加息导致美元升值,世界对美国产品的消费会减少,若我国产品与美国存在替代性,世界会增加对我国产品的消费,从而增加行业产出。

In 2015,the Federal Reserve opened a new round of interest rate hike cycle.Based on the perspective of computer communication electronics industry,this paper selects the monthly data of China and the United States from 2006 to 2018,establishes the TVP-SV-VAR model,and analyzes the Fed rate hike to China's computer communication electronics industry.The time-varying characteristics of the impact found that in the sample time span,the US interest rate policy has a positive impact on China's computer communication industry,mainly because the Sino-US computer communication electronics industry is competitive.The Fed’s interest rate hike will lead to an appreciation of the US dollar,and the world’s consumption of US products will decrease.If there is an alternative to China’s products and the United States,the world will increase consumption of Chinese products,thereby increasing industry output.