不同经济发展路径下的能源需求与碳排放预测——基于河北省的分析

Projection on energy demand and carbon emission in various economic developing pathways——A case study in Hebei province

运用协整检验和马尔科夫链等方法研究不同经济增长路径下河北省2017~2035年的能源需求与结构、CO2排放情况.结果显示:经济增长对能源需求具有明显的拉动作用.低速增长情景下,河北2035年的人均能源消费量与能源消费总量将分别达到5.261tce和41613.294万tce,而高速情景下则分别为7.618tce和60258.456万tce.河北未来的能源结构将长期保持相对稳定的状态,煤炭在能源结构中的绝对份额短期内难以改变,预计到2035年煤炭的消费占比仍将达到88.16%.河北的CO2排放量将依然长期保持增长趋势.高速情景下,预计CO2排放量将从2017年的87699.314万t增加至2035年的159117.415万t,分别是同期低速增长情景下的1.01倍和1.45倍.应保持经济合理增长,优化能源消费结构,调整产业布局,培育和发展新动能.

This study uses the cointegration test and the Markov chain method to project Hebei’s future(2017~2035)energy demand and structure,and the associated CO2 emissions by considering three distinct economic developing scenarios.The results show that the economic growth has strong pulling effect on energy demand.Under the low-growth scenario,Hebei’s per capita energy consumption and total consumption will reach 5.261tce and 416.13million tce respectively.While these consumptions will be 7.618tce and 602.58million tce respectively under the high-growth scenario.Hebei’s future energy consumption structure will maintain stable in the long term,unlikely to change the percentage of coal in total energy consumption.The coal consumption will reach 88.16%in Hebei’s total energy consumption in 2035.The increasing trend of Hebei’s CO2 emissions will continue in the long run.Under the high-growth scenario,Hebei’s total CO2 emissions will increase from 876.99million ton in 2017 to 1 591.17million ton,1.01times and 1.45times higher than the contemporaneous emissions in the low-growth scenario respectively.It’s thus necessary to keep Hebei’s economic growth within a rational range,optimize energy consumption structure,adjust industrial distribution,cultivate and develop new economy.