2019年上半年天然橡胶期货市场分析及后市展望

Analysis of Natural Rubber Futures Market in the First Half of 2019 and Future Prospects

2019年上半年,国内外天然橡胶价格走势出现明显的分歧,呈内弱外强的格局。沪胶价格历经二起二落,延续前期的区间振荡特征,而日胶价格重心显著提升。需求方面,与橡胶相关的汽车行业以及与重型卡车轮胎相关的房地产和基建行业在短期内转好的可能性不大,仅维持在一定水平已经非常不易。需求对天然橡胶价格的影响仍然是以拖累作用为主。供应方面,2019年下半年天然橡胶产量会出现季节性增长,因此如果没有发生极端天气等特殊事件,天然橡胶价格难以出现大幅上涨,但如果胶价继续下行,只能让更多的胶农弃割弃管,反向限制产量增长,因此下跌空间也有限。2019年下半年天然橡胶市场可能大多是测试下方底部的运动。

In the first half of 2019,there was an obvious difference in the price trend of natural rubber(NR)futures at home and abroad,showing a pattern of internal weakness and external strength.NR price in Shanghai rubber futures market experienced two ups and downs,extending the previous period of interval oscillation characteristics,while the NR price of Japanese rubber futures market increased significantly.In terms of demand,the rubber-related industries such as automobile industry,as well as the infrastructure and construction industry related to heavy truck tires,are unlikely to get better in the short term,and it is very difficult to maintain a certain high level.The influence of demand on NR price is still dragging effect.In terms of supply,NR production will increase seasonally in the second half of 2019,so it is difficult for NR prices to rise sharply without special events such as extreme weather.However,if the NR price continues to decline,more rubber farmers will abandon their rubber trees,and it would restrict the increase of NR production.Therefore,the space for decline in NR futures market is limited.The trend of NR futures market in the second half of 2019 will test the bottom line of the market.