中国劳动力供给潜力的微观机制分析

On China’s Potential Labor Supply From a Micro Family Perspective

中国15~64岁劳动年龄人口在2013年达到峰值,人口老龄化对供给侧生产要素产生负向影响,而劳动力供给潜力又直接影响了未来中国经济增长速度。据测算,至2046—2050年,中国劳动力供给潜力将比“十三五”时期减少1.5亿。从微观视角出发,通过劳动参与率和失业率的决定方程,分析中国劳动力供给的微观决定因素,研究发现,年龄、文化程度、家庭结构和其他财产性收入都对个体的劳动参与决策和失业起到决定性作用。特别是当家庭中老人和未成年子女比例较高时,处于劳动年龄阶段的家庭成员退出劳动力市场的可能性会增加。提出政府应该从微观影响机制入手,建立和完善养老保障体系并增加教育投入,通过减轻养老负担和子女教育成本负担,改变个体劳动力供给决策,从而提高劳动力供给潜力。

China′s working-age population peaked in 2013.The aging population has a negative impact on supply-side production factors,and the labor supply potential will directly affect China′s economic growth in the future.According to the calculations,by 2046—2050,China′s potential labor supply will be reduced by 150 million compared with that in the"13th Five-Year Plan"period.The study focuses on many micro-institutional factors which affect labor supply potential and analyzes the micro-determination factors of China′s future labor supply through the decision equation of labor participation rate and unemployment rate.It finds out that age,education,age structure of a family and property income of a family play a decisive role in the working decision.In particular,adults are more likely to withdraw from the labor market when the proportion of elderly and children in households is high.Therefore,a micro mechanism is suggested for the Chinese government.By reducing the burden of old-age care and children′s education of a family,the individual labor supply decision will be changed,so as to improve the potential labor supply.