分析师大胆预测能否提高盈利预测？——基于羊群行为的研究

Can Bold Forecast by Securities Analysts Improve Earnings Forecast? :Based on Herd Behavior Research

随着中国证券市场的发展,卖方分析师成为了市场中重要的组成部分,是整个资本市场上连接上市公司和投资者的重要信息中介。大量研究表明,影响分析师盈利预测精度的因素较多,主要分为公司方面和分析师方面的影响因素。本文从行为金融角度切入,探讨了分析师羊群行为对盈利预测的影响。基于2012—2014年53229份分析师实地调研数据,结果表明:(1)分析师大胆预测显著提高了预测精度;(2)分析师实地调研后,发布大胆预测报告的预测精度更加准确;(3)调研分析师大胆预测对预测精度的提高在不同分位点上各不相同,且呈倒U型。

With the development of China's securities market,sell-side analysts have become an important part of the market and an important information intermediary connecting listed companies and investors in the whole capital market.A large number of studies show that there are many factors influencing the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts,which are mainly divided into corporate factors and analyst factors.This paper discusses the influence of herd behavior on earnings forecast from the perspective of behavioral finance.Based on the field research data of 53,229 analysts from 2012 to 2014,the results show that:(1)analysts'bold prediction significantly improves the prediction accuracy;(2)after the field research of analysts,the prediction accuracy of bold prediction report is more accurate;(3)the bold predictions of survey analyst have different impacts on the improvement of prediction accuracy,and they show an inverted u-shape.