人民币汇率市场化的逆周期操作与审慎管理

Counter-cyclical Operation and Prudent Management in the Process of RMB Exchange Rate Marketization

人民币汇率中间价定价机制的改革和汇率波动幅度限制的放宽表明我国汇率市场化的进程不断推进。为了对冲汇率市场的顺周期波动,我国引入逆周期因子和外汇风险准备金工具。逆周期因子与外汇风险准备金的策略组合起到了对冲顺周期波动的效果。在存在非理性行为和顺周期性的外汇市场上,应通过逆周期操作与审慎管理抑制非理性行为。但随着市场回归理性,应适时取消逆周期因子和外汇风险准备金。同时为了推动市场化,应进一步在定价机制中增加外汇市场供求因素的权重,并继续放宽汇率波动幅度的限制。

The reform of the central parity pricing mechanism of the RMB exchange rate and the relaxation of the exchange rate fluctuation limit indicate that the process of China’s exchange rate marketization is constantly advancing. In order to hedge the pro-cyclical fluctuations of the exchange rate market,counter-cyclical factors and the foreign exchange risk reserve tools are introduced in China. This paper finds that the combination of counter-cyclical factor and foreign exchange risk reserve strategy can hedge pro-cyclical fluctuations. In the foreign exchange market with irrational behavior and procyclicality, counter-cyclical operations and prudent management should be adopted to suppress irrational behavior. However, as the market returns to rationality, the counter-cyclical factor and foreign exchange risk reserve should be cancelled in time. At the same time, in order to promote marketization, we should further increase the weight of supply and demand factors in the foreign exchange market in the pricing mechanism and continue to relax the restrictions range of exchange rate fluctuations.