基于多因子模型的农业水资源安全评价

Agricultural water resources safety evaluation based on multi-factor evaluation model

针对水资源安全评价受到复杂性和不确定性等因素影响,在原始数据计算基础上,通过多因子评判模型,用指标评定系数代表农业水资源安全重要程度,以湖北省2017年为基准水平年为例,从水资源系统、供水系统、用水系统、社会经济系统、生态环境系统等方面选取17个代表性指标计算得到全省农业水资源安全评价状况。结果表明,综合评判模型计算得到农业水资源安全系统综合评价值Y=3.524,且水资源、供水、用水、社会经济系统的层次系统评价值均处于2~4范围内,属于基本安全状态,处于安全中偏低水平。分析认为耕地灌溉率低,污水处理能力弱,水资源利用率低为影响水资源安全主要因素,同时提出保障农业水安全的4个措施方面,进一步提高农业水资源安全的可持续利用发展。

1In view of the complexity and uncertainty of water resources safety assessment,based on the original data calculation,the multi-factor evaluation model is used to represent the importance of agricultural water resources security with the index evaluation coefficient,and the year of 2017 in Hubei Province.For example,17 representative indicators from the water resources system,water supply system,water system,socio-economic system,and ecological environment system are selected to calculate the state of agricultural water resources safety assessment.The results show that combined with the actual situation of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province,the comprehensive evaluation value of agricultural water resources security system is calculated by comprehensive evaluation model y=3.524,and the hierarchical system evaluation values of water resources,water supply,water and social economic systems are all within the scope of 2~4,it belongs to the basic safety state and is at a low level in safety.The analysis considers that the irrigated land irrigating rate is low,the sewage treatment capacity is weak,and the water resource utilization rate is the main factor affecting water resources safety.At the same time,four safety water safety protection measures are proposed.In terms of measures,we will further improve the sustainable use of agricultural water resources.