计及不确定性的含分布式光伏配电网削峰效益评估

Peak Load Efficiency Evaluation of Distribution Network with Distributed Photovoltaic Considering Uncertainty

分布式光伏接入有利于降低配电网负荷峰值,提高配电网运营效益,但由于其出力不确定性特点,导致其削峰效益难以准确评估。本文通过分析光伏出力的波动性和时序性,建立了基于净空模型的光伏出力时序模型,同时考虑负荷和光伏出力的不确定性,提出了置信削峰度指标来衡量光伏接入对配电网负荷峰值的影响,基于此,结合节点边际容量成本概念,提出了计及不确定性的含分布式光伏配电网削峰效益概率评估方法。以南方某地区配电网实际中压馈线为例进行仿真分析,结果表明:本文所提方法在考虑光伏出力不确定性的同时,能够准确评估光伏以不同位置和不同电压等级接入配电网的削峰效益,对分布式光伏的选址具有一定的指导意义。

Distributed photovoltaic(DPV)access is beneficial to reduce the load peak and improve operation efficiency of distribution network.However,it is difficult to evaluate accurately the peak load efficiency due to its output uncertainty.In this paper,the PV output time?sequence model based on clearance model is set up through the analysis of PV output volatility and time sequence feature and,at the same time,considering the uncertanity of load and PV output,the confidence peak load index is proposed to measure the effect of PV access on the peak load of the distribution network.On this basis,a PLSB probabilistic evaluation method of distribution network with DPV considering uncertainty is proposed with combination of concept of locational marginal capacity cost of nodes.The real medium voltage feeder at certain distribution network in southern China is taken as an example for simulation and analysis and it is shown by the result that the method can,at the time of considering photovoltaic output uncertainty,accurately evaluate the peak load efficiency accessing to different positions and different voltage levels of the distribution network and have a definite significance for the location selection of distribution photovoltaic.