人口流动对商贸流通产业的影响——基于时空演化机制的分析

The Influence of Population Movement on Trade Circulation Industry——Analysis Based on Space-Time Evolution Mechanism

文章基于2003-2018年人口流动及商贸流通产业发展的数据,使用几何重心法及固定效应模型,对我国人口流动对商贸流通业发展的影响进行了分析。实证研究结果表明:我国商贸流通产业的发展受人口流动的影响,在空间上的转移趋于一致性;商贸流通转移较人口转移速度存在滞后性,且近些年转移速度呈现逐渐降低的趋势;人口的城乡流动以及区域流动有利于人口净流入地商贸流通产业的发展。因此应该制定合理的人口流动规划、加大商贸基础设施建设以及刺激消费来转变经济发展方式,对于我国商贸流通产业的健康发展具有重大的现实意义。

TThe article is based on population flow and the development of the commerce circulating industry data which is from 2003 to 2018,using geometric gravity method and fixed effect model,the article analyzed the influence of the population flow to commerce development in China.After the reform and opening up,China's population flow is continuously strengthen in urban-rural and regional-regional.As a result the current development of China's regional commerce is directly impacted.The empirical research results show that:First,the development of China's trade circulation industry is affected by population flow,and the spatial transfer tends to be consistent.Second,the development of the trade circulation industry is laggde to population flow.Therefore,in order to achieve the coordinated development of China's trade circulation industry,it is necessary to formulate reasonable macro-planning of population flow,increase the construction of trade infrastructure and stimulate consumption to transform the economic development mode,which is of great practical significance to the healthy development of China's trade circulation industry.