城镇化与服务业空间分布——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

Urbanization and Spatial Distribution of Service Industry: Empirical Research based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

基于城镇化理论和产业经济理论的借鉴,本文利用中国2008-2017年省级面板数据分析中国城镇化与服务业空间分布之间关系。研究结果表明:城镇化与生产性服务业空间分布呈现较强的U型关系,拐点在城镇化率为68.4%;城镇化与生活性服务业空间分布呈现线性正相关关系,与公共服务业空间分布存在较明显的倒U型关系,拐点在城镇化率为48%,生产性服务业空间集聚水平随城镇化进程大大高于生活性服务业。从整体上看,城镇化与服务业空间分布存在一定的线性正相关性,服务业具有一定的集聚化趋势,这也印证了服务业结构存在向生产性服务业为主的现代服务业结构演变的规律。结合服务业空间分布趋势,应以城镇化为基础,合理引导各类服务业在空间上有序集聚和分散。

Based on the theory of urbanization and industrial economic theory,this paper studies the relationship between urbanization and spatial distribution of service industry by using Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017.The results show that the urbanization and the spatial distribution of producer services has a U-shaped relationship,whose inflection point of urbanization is 68.4%;urbanization and consumer services spatial distribution presents linear positive correlation,and public services presents an inverted U-shaped relationship,whose turning point in the urbanization rate is 48%,and producer services agglomeration level are significantly higher than that of consumer services with the process of the urbanization.Overall,the urbanization and spatial distribution of service industry has certain linear positive correlation,and service industry has a certain trend of agglomeration,which confirm the service industry structure to give priority to the modern service industry structure evolution law of producer services.Combining with the spatial distribution of service industry trend,we need to reasonably guide the orderly agglomeration and decentralization of various service industries in space on the basis of urbanization.