中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资区位选择——基于制度质量视角的经验研究

Location Choice of China’s OFDI in Countries along “the Belt and Road”: Empirical Research based on the Perspective of Institutional Quality

区位选择是企业OFDI战略决策的首要考虑因素,在一定程度上决定了某项投资的风险与成败。本文通过构建理论模型,考察东道国制度质量因素等对一国OFDI区位选择的影响,并以“一带一路”沿线国家为研究样本,运用面板数据模型实证分析东道国制度质量、制度质量各分项指标以及母国与东道国制度质量距离等因素对中国OFDI区位选择的影响。结果表明:与东道国制度质量本身相比,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的制度质量距离对中国OFDI的区位选择影响更大;不同维度制度质量对中国OFDI区位选择的影响程度虽然有别,但中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI同时具有低政治制度质量偏好和低法律制度质量偏好,而对高经济制度质量的偏好不显著;相比于“一带一路”沿线国家制度质量本身,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制度质量距离对中国OFDI区位选择偏好的影响力更大。因此,我国应充分利用共建“一带一路”的战略机遇,与“一带一路”沿线国家开展更为广阔的产业合作,并进一步推动“南-南”投资的发展,积极构建“南-南”合作组织、推动“南-南”合作机制形成。

Location selection is the most important factor in OFDI strategic decision-making,which determines the risk and success of an investment to a certain extent.This paper constructs a theoretical model to examine the influence of host country system quality factors on the OFDI location choice of a country,and uses panel data model to empirically analyze the influence of host country system quality,system quality sub index,and the distance between home country and host country system on China′s OFDI location choice by taking the countries along the belt and road as research samples.The results show that,compared with the quality of the host country system,the distance between China and the countries along“the Belt and Road”has a greater impact on the location choice of OFDI in China;although the influence of different dimensions of institutional quality on China′s OFDI location choice is different,China has low preference for political system quality and low legal system quality preference for OFDI along“the Belt and Road”,while the preference for high economic system quality is not significant;compared with the quality of the countries along“the Belt and Road”,the distance between China and the countries along the“the Belt and Road”system has a greater influence on China′s OFDI location preference.Therefore,China should make full use of the strategic opportunity of building“the Belt and Road”to carry out broader industrial cooperation with the countries along“the Belt and Road”,and further promote the development of“South-South”investment,actively build“South-South”Cooperation Organization and promote the formation of the“South-South”cooperation mechanism.