雾霾污染对中国城市发展质量的影响

Impacts of haze pollution on urban development quality in China

运用熵值法测算出2003—2016年中国285个地级及以上城市发展质量,基于动态空间滞后模型,设置地理距离矩阵、经济距离矩阵和技术距离矩阵,对比分析了雾霾污染对城市发展质量的全局性和异质性影响。研究表明:雾霾污染与城市发展质量在全国层面存在“N型”曲线关系,而与城市化在全国层面存在较弱的“倒N型”曲线关系,雾霾污染对城市化与城市发展质量的影响在全国层面存在此消彼长的作用规律。雾霾污染与东部城市发展质量存在“U型”曲线关系,而与中西部城市发展质量存在“倒U型”曲线关系。雾霾污染对城市发展质量的影响在区域层面也存在此消彼长的作用规律。雾霾污染与大中城市发展质量存在“N型”曲线关系,而与小城市发展质量存在“倒U型”曲线关系,雾霾污染对大中城市的抑制作用已经率先得到扭转,而对小城市的抑制作用仍需改进,雾霾污染对城市发展质量的影响在规模层面具有明显的差异性。雾霾污染与城市发展质量在2003—2009年存在“N型”曲线关系,而在2010—2016年存在较弱的“倒U型”曲线关系,雾霾污染对城市发展质量的影响在时间层面具有一定的阶段性、动态性和延续性。在未来的发展上,应从以下方面发力:第一,内部治理、外部协调,通过内外互动防止雾霾污染转移的“公地悲剧”。第二,政府引导、企业主导,通过建立有效的激励约束机制推动雾霾污染治理的“见贤思齐”。第三,淡化速度、强化质量,通过创新驱动与产业升级逐步扭转城市发展质量的“路径依赖”。第四,优化结构、净化产能,通过构筑良性竞争机制推动城市发展质量的“逐顶竞争”。第五,深度开发、适度集聚,通过有效利用城市空间资源发挥规模经济的“溢出效应”。

The entropy method is used to calculate the urban development quality of 285 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2003 to 2016.Based on the dynamic spatial auto-regressive model,the geographic distance matrix,economic distance matrix and technical distance matrix are set up to analyze the global and heterogeneity effects of haze pollution on urban development quality in China.The result shows that there is an‘N’-shaped curve relationship between haze pollution and urban development quality at the national level,and there is an inverted‘N’-shaped curve relationship between haze pollution with urbanization at the comprehensive level.The influence of haze pollution on urbanization and urban development quality has the law of wane and wax at the national level.Moreover,haze pollution not only has a‘U’-shaped curve relationship with the urban development quality in the eastern region,but also has an inverted‘U’-shaped curve relationship with the urban development quality in the central and western regions.The influence of urban development quality also has a wane and wax effect at the regional level.Furthermore,there is an‘N’-shaped curve relationship between haze pollution and the development quality of large and medium-sized cities,but an inverted‘U’-shaped curve relationship with the development quality of small cities.The inhibitory effect of haze pollution on large and medium-sized cities has been reversed initially,while the inhibitory of small cities still needs to be improved.Last but not least,the impact of haze pollution on urban development quality has significant differences in scale.The relationship between haze pollution and urban development quality during 2003-2009 is a‘N’-shaped curve,while there is a weak inverted‘U’-shaped curve during 2010-2016.The influence of haze pollution on urban development quality has certain stages,dynamics and continuity at the time level.In the long run,we should make efforts from the following aspects:The first is internal governance and external coordination,so as prevent the occurrence of‘tragedy of the commons’of haze pollution through internal and external interactions;the second is government guidance and enterprise leadership,so as to promote the‘to see a wise,good man and try to emulate him’of haze control through the establishment of effective incentive and restraint mechanisms;the third is weakening the speed and strengthening the quality,so as to transform the‘path dependence’of urban development quality through technological innovation and industrial upgrading gradually;the fourth is optimizing structure and purifying production capacity,so as to promote the‘top-level competition’of urban development quality by constructing a benign competition mechanism;the fifth is deep development and moderate agglomeration,so as to achieve the‘spillover effect’of scale economy by effectively utilizing urban spatial resources.