西部地区工业化质量时空演变及高质量发展路径研究

Research on spatial-temporal evolution of industrialization quality and high-quality development path in Western China

自新型工业化战略实施以来,中国西部地区工业发展成效显著,增速甚至超过了东中部地区。即便遵循新型工业化发展路径,但快速增长仍带来生态环境破坏、资源过度输出、科技创新动力不足等问题,工业化质量堪忧,高质量发展成为工业发展的重要命题。为全面评价西部地区工业化质量状况,本文建立了工业化质量三维模型,运用超效率DEA、超效率SBM等方法从绿色效率、创新效率、经济效率三个维度评价西部地区11个省份2005—2016年工业化质量的时空演变特征,结果显示:①从西部地区11个省份横向对比看,各个省份工业化质量具有平稳、波动、优化且波动、恶化且波动4种时变性特征,但不同阶段表现出路径依赖增强的持续性特点。②从2005—2016年纵向对比看,西部地区工业化质量高效率模式的地理格局呈现由边疆地区向靠近内陆地区演变的新特征。③西部地区工业化发展不均衡,演进成果存在差异。工业绿色效率呈下降趋势(从0.87下降至0.48),创新效率呈“倒U”型走势(均高于1.00),工业经济效率总体较低(0.45~0.57之间)但稳中求进。模型结果显示三者间存在当期或滞后的显著影响,三类高质量发展路径存在。基于研究结果,西部地区各个省份依据本省现状筛选出工业高质量发展路径。工业化具有多重发展目标,绿色、创新、经济效率发展理念之间的互相促进作用客观印证“绿水青山就是金山银山”与制造强国战略丰富的理论内涵。

Since implementing the‘new industrialization’strategic plan,the industrial development in western China has achieved remarkable achievements accompanied with faster growth rate than eastern and central China.However,the rapid industrial development also caused severe problems such as ecological environment destruction,over-export of resources,inability of innovation,and the poor quality of industrialization.Thus,how to facilitate high-quality industrial development has become an important proposition.In order to evaluate the industrialization quality of western China comprehensively,industrial development data of eleven provinces from 2005 to 2016 has been collected.Then,a three-dimensional model has been established to analyze its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics from aspect of green efficiency,innovation efficiency and economic efficiency by using super-efficiency DEA and super-efficiency SBM.The results showed that:①Horizontally compared with data from 2005-2006,the industrialization quality of each province was characterized with time-varying attributes,which were stationary,fluctuating,optimized and fluctuating,deteriorating and fluctuating,but the path dependence were enhanced in different stages.②The high efficiency industrial development model had been spreading from frontier areas of western China to inland areas from 2005 to 2016.③The industrial development in western China was characterized with imbalance and the evolution results have differentiation.Specifically,the green efficiency of industry was decreasing(from 0.87 to 0.48),the innovation efficiency was‘inverted U’(higher than 1.00),and the industrial economic efficiency was generally low(between 0.45 and 0.57)but steady.Furthermore,the three research results listed above had significant impacts in the current phase or lag phase,and three high-quality development paths existed.Based on the study results,it suggests that the provinces in western China should select the appropriate high-quality development path according to the present industry situation.The industrialization has multiple development goals.The mutual promotion among green,innovation and economic efficiency objectively confirms the rich theoretical connotation of‘lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”and the project of raising the country’s manufacturing power.