中美贸易摩擦对两国经济影响分析

Analysis of Impacts of Sino-US Trade Frictions

利用GTAP模型分别模拟分析2018年初中美贸易摩擦的长期和短期经济影响,结果发现,中美两轮贸易加税全部实施,短期内美国对中国贸易逆差会减少约295亿美元,美国对世界逆差减少257亿美元,中国对世界顺差增加108亿美元。此外,中国实际GDP、福利和就业率分别下降0.37%、503亿美元和0.52%;美国分别下降0.28%、515亿美元和0.38%。长期来看,中美宏观负面冲击在一定程度上均会得到缓解。在产业影响方面,中国弱夕阳产业、新兴产业部门分别在两轮贸易摩擦中受到较大冲击,农业部门普遍受益,夕阳产业部门影响不大,其中电子设备和机械设备等新兴产业产出均下降1.14%。美国农业、夕阳产业在两轮贸易摩擦中负面影响较大,其中油菜籽和植物纤维产出分别下降17.9%和14.3%。总体而言,中美贸易摩擦对双方都带来较大冲击,而且其影响会随着摩擦的升级而扩大。

In this paper,we use the GTAP model to simulate long-run and short-run economic impacts of Sino-US trade frictions in early 2018.The scenario results show that,in the short run,the U.S.trade deficit with China is expected to decline by$29.5 billion,while the U.S.trade deficit with the world will be reduced by about$25.7 billion,China’s surplus will increase by$10.8 billion.In addition,to China,the real GDP growth rate,welfare and employment rate will reduce by 0.37%,$50.3 billion and 0.52%,respectively.Those of the U.S.fall by 0.28%,$51.5 billion and 0.38%respectively.However,in the long run,the negative shocks will be relieved.In the view of industries,the friction will cause serious loss for the output of quasi-old industries and emerging industries in China,especially for electronic equipment,machinery and equipment,whose output will all decrease by 1.14%.Chinese agriculture industries will benefit from this friction and old industries will suffer little.The United States’agriculture and old industries,such as oil seeds and plant-based fibers will suffer more damage and their output will decrease by 17.9%and 14.3%,respectively.In general,Sino-US trade frictions will exert great negative effects on both sides,and the effect will be more deeply felt with the es calation of friction.