采用个人旅行费用法的计数模型评估农地的游憩价值

Applying the Counting Model of Individual Travel Cost Method to Evaluate the Recreational Value of Agricultural Land

分析比较了个人旅行费用法(ITCM)与区域旅行费用法(ZTCM),线性模型与计数模型的特点,结合实地调查收集到的游客数据和休闲农业的旅游需求特征,选择个人旅行费用法(ITCM)的计数模型评估长春荣发农业园的游憩价值。结果显示,旅行费用的差异性、旅行次数的正整数特性和过离散性,使得负二项模型具有较高的拟合优度。负二项模型计算得出的年总消费者剩余达10×10 7元,是年总经营收入的3.33倍,平均每亩农地的游憩价值达205 166元,是当前经营收益的4.10倍,休闲农地产生了巨大的社会福利。评估农地的游憩价值对提高休闲农业经营管理、完善农地价格体系、有效保护农地和科学管理农地具有参考意义。

Based on the analysis and comparison of the characteristics of individual travel cost method(ITCM)and zonal travel cost method(ZTCM),linear model and counting model,and combination of the tourist data collected in the field survey and the tourism demand characteristics of leisure agriculture,this paper selects the counting model of individual travel cost method(ITCM)to evaluate the recreational value of Changchun Rongfa leisure farm.The results shows that the negative binomial model has a higher goodness of fit,owing to the travel cost difference,positive integer characteristic and over-dispersion of travel frequency.The total annual consumer surplus calculated by the negative binomial model is 10×10 7 Yuan,which is 3.33 times of the total annual operating income.The average recreational value per mu of farmland is 205 166 Yuan,which is 4.10 times of the current operating income.Leisure farm has produced enormous social benefits.It is of great significance to evaluate the recreational value of agricultural land for improving the management of leisure agriculture,perfecting the price system of agricultural land,protecting agricultural land effectively and managing farmland scientifically.