气候变化背景下随州市中稻抽穗扬花适宜期研究

Study on the suitable heading and flowering period of mid-season rice in Suizhou city under the background of climate change

利用随州市2个国家气象站1957—2017年的气温观测数据,通过函数拟合的方式模拟中稻生长季内抽穗扬花期高温热害和低温冷害发生几率随时间的变化,从而确定中稻遭遇高温热害和低温冷害风险几率较小的抽穗扬花适宜期时段,并分析其变化规律。结果表明,在气候变化背景下,随州市一季中稻抽穗扬花适宜期持续时间呈现增加趋势,每10年平均增加2 d左右。

Based on the temperature data of two national meteorological observation stations in Suizhou city from 1957 to 2017,the variation of the occurrence probability of high temperature heat damage and low temperature cold damage over time in the heading and flowering stage of middle rice growing season was simulated by function fitting.And the suitable time period of heading and flowering was determined and its variation rule was analyzed.The results showed that the suitable period presented a increasing trend under the background of climate change in Suizhou city,the average increase was about 2 days every 10 years.