基于空间统计分析的湖南省区域经济空间差异动态演化

Dynamic Evolution of Spatial Difference of Regional Economy in Hunan Province Based on Spatial Statistical Analysis

选取了湖南省市州2005—2015年人均GDP数据为研究指标,运用空间自相关分析、时空跃迁及标准差椭圆等空间统计方法对湖南省市州经济空间差异动态演化特征进行了研究。结果表明:1)近10年来湖南省市州经济发展具有显著的空间正相关性,经济空间差异呈缩小的趋势。2)湖南省市州经济不但具有空间依赖性,而且具有空间异质性。热点地区包括长沙、株洲、湘潭和岳阳,冷点地区包括永州、衡阳、邵阳、怀化、张家界和湘西。3)湖南省市州经济的局部空间关联结构比较稳定,时空跃迁中发生不同类别间跃迁的市州数量较少,表明湖南省市州经济受相邻市州经济溢出效应的影响较小。4)经济重心整体上有向东北方向移动的趋势。湖南省市州经济发展呈东南—西北的空间分布格局,但随着时间的推移逐步向正东—正西方向转变。

By selecting per capita GDP of every city in Hunan Province from 2005 to 2015,using the spatial statistical methods such as spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatiotemporal transitions and standard deviational ellipse,and so on.This article analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of spatial differences in economic at the city-level in Hunan Province.The results show that:(1)there was a significant positive spatial correlation of economic at the city-level in Hunan province during 2005—2015.The inter-city economic spatial differences are narrowing trend;(2)The economic at the city-level not only has spatial dependency,but also has spatial heterogeneity.The Hot spots include Changsha,Zhuzhou,Xiangtan and Yueyang;the cold spots include Yongzhou,Hengyang,Shaoyang,Huaihua,Zhangjiajie and Xiangxi.(3)The local spatial association structure of city-level in Hunan is relatively stable,and the number of cities with different types of transitions in space-time transitions is relatively small,indicating that the economy of Hunan Province is affected less by the economic spillover effects of neighboring cities and states;(4)The scope of economic gravity centre is a trend towards the northeast as a whole.The spatial distribution of economic at the city-level in Hunan province presented a southeast-northwest pattern,and had the tendency of shifting to a east-west pattern.