粘性价格、福利损失与中国经济波动

Sticky Price,Welfare Loss and Economic Fluctuations in China

粘性价格与弹性价格机制是经济学中对市场价格确定的两种不同的假设,古典经济学认为市场中价格可以随着供求或者其他影响因素的调整而自由波动,而凯恩斯经济学则认为现实中价格具有粘性特征。那么现实中,粘性价格与弹性价格机制对一国经济变量的影响是怎样的呢?其对经济主体的福利损失情况影响又是怎样的呢?这是本文探讨的问题。本文以粘性价格微观理论为基础,将粘性价格纳入宏观经济的分析框架,构建了一个包含家庭、企业、中间产品部门、最终产品部门以及粘性价格部门的五部门DSGE模型,并利用我国1993Q1-2016Q4的季度数据,比较了在不同的粘性价格与弹性价格模型框架下,不同的价格确定模式对我国经济系统变量的影响,通过分析发现:第一,在粘性价格下,由于市场价格水平不能及时对冲击做出反应,各经济变量受政策冲击的影响比较大;而在弹性价格模式下,由于价格可以随着市场的状况进行及时调整,因此,经济系统受到的冲击比较小。第二,粘性价格框架下,宏观经济变量对于稳态值的偏离程度要远大于弹性价格框架下变量的偏离程度,从经济主体的福利损失来看,粘性价格框架下经济主体的福利损失要大于弹性价格框架下的福利损失。

Sticky price and elastic price mechanism are two different assumptions about market price determination in economics.Classical Economics holds that price in market can fluctuate freely with the adjustment of supply and demand or other influencing factors.Keynesian Economics,on the other hand,holds that price has the characteristics of stickiness in reality.So what is the in fluence of sticky price and elastic price mechanism on a countrys economic variables in reality?What is the impact of the loss of welfare on the main body of the economy?This is the problem discussed in this paper Based on the microscopic theory of sticky price,this paper brings sticky price into the macroeconomic analysis framework,and constructs a five-sector DSGE modelwhich includes household,enterprise,intermediate product department,final product department and sticky price department.Adopting the quarterly data of 1993Q1—2016Q4 in China,this paper compares the influence of different price determination models on the variables of Chinas economic system under the framework of different sticky price and elastic price models.Through the analysis,it is found that:first,under the sticky price,Because the market price level cannot respond to the impact in time,the economic variables are greatly affected by the shock of policy.In the flexible price model,because the price can be adjusted in time with the market situation,the impact on the economic system is relatively small.Second,under the framework of sticky price,the deviation of macroeconomic variables from steady-state values is much greater than that of variables under the framework of elastic prices.From the point of view of the welfare loss of economic subjects,The welfare loss of the economic subject under the sticky price framework is greater than that under the elastic price framework.