货币互换、自由贸易协定与跨境人民币结算的发展——基于heckman两步法和PSM的实证检验

The Development of Currency Swaps,Free Trade Agreements and Cross-border RMB Settlement——An Empirical Analysis based on Heckman Two-Step Method and PSM

近年来,人民币在跨境贸易和投资结算中扮演着越来越重要的角色,但与美元、欧元等主要国际货币的结算地位相比还存在较大差距。文章基于2013-2018年人民币在19个主要国家或地区跨境收付的面板数据,进行heckman两步法实证检验和倾向得分匹配(PSM),探讨影响跨境人民币结算的动因。研究结果表明:(1)签订货币互换协议、使用共同语言等因素会显著正向地促进对象国或地区在跨境经贸活动中使用人民币结算规模;对象国或地区与中国的地理距离、与中国金融发展综合指数的差距、人民币汇率波动等因素对跨境人民币收付金额的影响则为负向显著。(2)自由贸易协定对跨境人民币结算的影响是正向的,但不显著也不够稳健。(3)运用倾向得分匹配检验货币互换协定对跨境人民币结算的政策效果表明:对象国或地区与中国金融发展指标的差距越大,签署货币互换协议的概率越高,跨境人民币收付越多;自由贸易协定也会显著地促成货币互换协议;汇率波动越大,签署货币互换协议的概率就越小,跨境人民币收付越少。

In recent years,RMB plays an increasingly important role in cross-border trade and investment settlement,but there is still a big gap compared with the settlement status of the United States dollar and the euro.Based on the panel data of cross-border RMB receipts and payments in 19 major countries from 2013 to 2018,this paper makes an empirical test to explore the motivation of cross-border RMB settlement.The empirical results show that:(i)The signing of currency swap agreements and the use of common language will significantly promote the use of RMB in cross-border economic and trade activities;The geographical distance and the gap of financial development level between the target country or region and China,along with the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate have a significant negative impact on the amount of crossborder RMB receipts and payments?(ii)Signing free trade agreements has positive but not significant effect on cross-border RMB settlement.(iii)The PSM results shows that the signing of currency swap agreements is related to the gap of financial development between the target countries or regions and China,the sign of free trade agreements and the exchange rate fluctuation of RMB.