三大主粮增产原因及潜力分析——基于单产增长的内部贡献分解

Growth Potential of Three Staple Grains in China:From the Perspective of Yield Growth Decomposition

为深化对粮食增产原因的了解,分析我国三大主粮总产量增加的主要贡献因素以及单产变化趋势,采用Kurosaki内部贡献分解法测度我国三大主粮单产增长的内部效应,并比较分析各地区单产变化与专业化生产趋势。研究表明:三大主粮总产量增长主要源于单产提高;单产增长基本可归因于纯单产增加,区域种植结构调整对单产提高的促进效应较小,同时专业化生产越来越向单产高的地区集中。可以预测,纯单产增加对单产增长的贡献会趋于平缓,未来我国粮食增产将更多地依赖区域种植结构调整与高产作物对低产作物的替代。

The paper investigated the driving force behind the production growth of the three staple grains in China.The Kurosaki decomposition method was adopted to estimate contribution from various factors.In addition,the yield change and specialization trend across different regions were analyzed.The results show that the production growth of the three staple grains can be attributed to yield increase,which is mainly caused by pure yield growth rather than spatial adjustment.Furthermore,evidence was found that staple grain is becoming more specialized in area where yield is high.The research indicates that future growth in grain production will depend increasingly on spatial adjustment and substitution of low-yield grain with high-yield grain.