陆气耦合洪水预报技术应用研究

Research on the Application of Atmospheric-hydrological Coupled Flood Forecasting Technology

以大清河系阜平水文站以上流域为研究对象,采用中尺度数值大气模式,利用三维变分数据同化技术,以降雨数值预报信息为输入,建立耦合分布式河北雨洪模型,构建了陆气耦合实时洪水预报系统。该模型提高了降雨数值预报成果的精准度,在保证洪水预报成果精度的前提下,有效延长了洪水预报的预见期。该成果将为主动应对洪水、降低洪灾损失等提供科学技术支撑,在我国中小水利流域具有推广应用价值。

Taking the upper basin of Fuping Hydrological Station in Daqing River system as the research object,a coupled distributed rainfall-flood model for Hebei Province is established and a real-time atmospheric-hydrological coupled flood forecasting system is constructed,in which,the meso-scale numerical atmospheric model and the three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique is used,and the rainfall numerical forecasting information is used as model input.This model can improve the accuracy of rainfall numerical forecasting results,and on the premise of ensuring the accuracy of flood forecasting,effectively prolong the foresight period of flood forecasting.This achievement will provide scientific and technical support for flood control,and has application value in small and medium-sized basins in China.