住房供给弹性、城市行政等级与中国城市人口增长

Elasticity of Housing Supply,Urban Administrative Rank and Urban Population Growth in China

在构建城市住房供给弹性与人口增长之间的理论机制的基础上,基于2005-2018年中国70个大中城市的面板数据样本,考察了住房供给弹性和城市行政等级对中国城市人口规模变动的影响。结果表明:在城市行政等级既定的条件下,在面临生产率和公共物品正向冲击时住房供给缺乏弹性的城市人口规模增长比例低于富于弹性的城市;在住房供给弹性既定的条件下,生产率和公共物品变动对省会城市和计划单列市人口规模增长的影响高于一般地级市;在面临生产率和公共物品冲击时住房供给缺乏弹性的城市的房价上涨比例和实际工资的下降幅度均高于同等级供给富于弹性的城市;省会城市的实际工资下降幅度低于相同住房供给弹性的一般地级市,房价上涨幅度则高于一般地级市。

On the basis of constructing the theoretical mechanism between urban housing supply elasticity and population growth,and based on the panel data samples of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2005 to 2018,it investigated the influence of housing supply elasticity and urban administrative level on the change of urban population size in China in this paper.The empirical results showed that under the given urban administrative level,the population size growth ratio of the cities with inelastic housing supply is lower than that of the cities with flexible housing supply when facing the positive impact of productivity and public goods.Under the given condition of housing supply elasticity,the changes of productivity and public goods have higher impact on population size growth in provincial capitals and cities with separate planning than in general prefecture-level cities.Cities with inelastic housing supply in the face of productivity and public goods shocks have higher rates of price increases and lower real wages than cities with more flexible housing supply.Real wage declines in provincial capitals are lower than those in general prefecture-level cities with the same housing supply elasticity,while price rises are higher than those in general prefecture-level cities.