经济结构调整、增速放缓与高质量发展——基于索罗-斯旺增长模型

Economic Structure Adjustment, Growth Slowdown and High Quality Development in China——Based on Solow-Swan growth Model

中国社会正在由生产型社会向消费型社会过渡,中国经济正在从投资拉动向消费拉动转型,中国经济发展目标正在从高速发展向高质量发展转变。在中国经济社会转型过程中,经济增速逐年放缓。采用索罗-斯旺模型解释中国经济当前面临的结构调整与下行压力并存问题,研究结果发现:当经济发展向消费驱动转型时,必然会拉低经济增长速度,目前我国经济增速放缓符合经济发展基本规律,不能因为经济增速下行压力而放弃经济转型。我国经济要向高质量发展不仅需要扩大内需继续推进我国经济结构调整,提高消费在经济总量中的比重,也应积极应对老龄化问题,采取有效措施增加就业人口,避免就业人口出现大幅下降,还应加大科技研发投入,鼓励社会创新,促进生产技术水平提升。

China is developing from productive society to consumption-oriented society,China’s economy is transforming from investment-driven to consumption-driven,and the goal of China’s economy is changing from high-speed development to high-quality development.In transformation process of China’s economy and society,the economic growth rate is also slowing down year by year.Based on the Solow-Swan growth model,it is found that when the economic development changes to consumption-driven,it will inevitably lower the economic growth rate.At present,the slowdown of economic growth rate in China accords with the basic laws of development.Economic restructuring should not be abandoned because of the downward pressure on economic growth.China’s economy should develop to high quality:firstly,we should expand domestic demand and continue to promote the adjustment of our economic structure,and increase the proportion of consumption in GDP;Secondly,we should actively deal with the problem of aging,take effective measures to increase the number of people in work,avoid a large decline in the number work people;thirdly,we should increase the investment in R&D of science and technology,encourage social innovation,and promote technological innovation.