不确定性、储蓄率差异与商业银行资产管理压力

Uncertainty, Savings Rate Difference And Commercial Bank Asset Management Pressure

本文分析了收入不确定性对居民储蓄率的影响,进而分析了对我国商业银行资管业务的冲击.采用2000-2014年省级面板数据进行检验,结果表明:收入不确定性对城镇居民储蓄率存在显著的正向作用,且西部地区的影响强度大于非西部地区;社会保障对城镇居民储蓄率反而起到显著的抑制作用.而进一步的分析还表明:收入不确定性会抑制商业银行储蓄存款、信贷业务,而业务规模的放缓或者萎缩,势必会影响银行资本的积累和投资,从而对商业银行资产管理产生较大压力;风险积聚程度加大,利润空间收窄.由此,深化金融改革势在必行.

This paper analyzes the impact of income uncertainty on the household savings rate, and then analyzes the impact on the asset management business of China’s commercial Banks. The provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 were used for testing.The results showed that income uncertainty had a significant positive effect on the saving rate of urban residents, and the impact intensity in the western region was greater than that in the non-western region. Social security has a significant inhibitory effect on the savings rate of urban residents. Further analysis also shows that the income uncertainty will inhibit the savings deposit and credit business of commercial Banks. However, the slowdown or contraction of the business scale will inevitably affect the accumulation and investment of bank capital, thus exerting great pressure on the asset management of commercial Banks. Risk accumulation degree increases, profit space Narrows. Since then, deepening financial reform is imperative.