基于供应链的电力低碳技术投资时机研究

Research on the Investment Timing of Low Carbon Technology in Electric Power Supply Chain

在电力市场和碳交易市场背景下,考虑碳交易价格不确定条件,利用实物期权理论计算其进行低碳技术投资时机的期权价值,建立单企业低碳投资时机决策模型。在此基础上,构建发电企业与电网公司二级供应链投资低碳技术的模型。运用期权博弈的方法,对电力供应链低碳技术的最优投资时机进行研究。通过算例分析最优投资时机的影响因素。结果表明,政府低碳补贴系数、碳交易价格波动率以及碳减排量等对低碳技术投资门槛产生影响,电力企业应该综合考虑各因素的影响,科学选择最优投资时机。政府应该制定合理的低碳补贴系数,促使电力企业投资低碳技术,实现经济与环境的协调发展。

In the context of electricity market and carbon trading market,aiming at the uncertainty of carbon trading price,the option value of low-carbon investment is established by using real option theory for the sale of integrated power supply chain.On this basis,the construction of electricity secondary supply chain in the power generation business,electricity manufacturers to invest in low-carbon technology model.Option game method is used to studies the optimal investment opportunity of low carbon technology in power supply chain.The influencing factors of optimal investment timing are analyzed by an example.The results show that the government low carbon subsidy coefficient,carbon trading price volatility and carbon emission reductions have an impact on the investment threshold of low carbon technology.Supply chain enterprises should consider the influence of various factors and choose the optimal investment opportunity.The government should develop a reasonable low-carbon subsidy coefficient,prompting the supply chain enterprises to invest in low-carbon technology,to achieve coordinated economic and environmental development.