考虑外部环境特性的小城镇慢行交通预测研究

Research on Slow Traffic Forecasting in Small Towns Considering External Environmental Characteristics

原有的小城镇规划中慢行交通并未受到重视,极大程度上压制了居民对慢行交通的满意度,也遏制了慢行需求。而传统的慢行交通预测大多是从用地性质、人口经济等方面入手,而慢行交通出行是与外部环境接触最多的出行方式,因此更应在预测阶段考虑外部环境的影响。文章在小城镇慢行交通预测阶段,通过问卷调查形式得出外部环境对出行总量增量,再在出行方式选择的效用函数中引入外部环境特性,拟以适宜性系数进行表征,使得慢行出行量的预测更为准确,为后续规划提供有力的支撑。最后对案例进行数据分析和模型解释说明,与传统预测方法进行对比得出结论。

The slow traffic in the original small town planning has not been taken seriously,which greatly suppressed the residents'satisfaction with slow traffic and also curbed the slow demand.The traditional slow traffic forecasting is mostly based on the nature of land use and population economy.Slow traffic travel is the most contact mode with the external environment.Therefore,the impact of the external environment should be considered in the forecast stage.Therefore,in the stage of slow traffic forecasting in small towns,this paper draws the external environment to increase the total amount of travel by questionnaire survey,and then introduces the external environment characteristics in the utility function of travel mode selection.This paper intends to characterize with the appropriateness coefficient.The forecast of slow travel is more accurate and provides strong support for subsequent planning.Finally,the data analysis and model interpretation of the case are compared with the traditional prediction method to draw conclusions.